2010 Prognostications

I'm going to go out on a limb and say what I think about the 2010 elections. If I turn out to be wrong, no great surprise. If I turn out to be right, well, that might be interesting.

My sense of things is that November, 2010 is going to be a huge surprise to almost everyone. I think a lot of real, plain, simple Americans are quietly shocked and dismayed and not about to forget by November. More than the polls show. More than the pundits predict. I think people are going to want to make an unmistakable statement. One that cannot be spun, as Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were spun to mean what they did not mean.

I think the Republicans could actually gain 80-90 seats in the House, and 12-15 seats in the Senate.

My biggest fear for 2012 is that Obama will read the tea leaves correctly and initiate a grand "adventure" (read war) to distract attention from what he is and draw on the deep well of patriotism (which I do not believe he shares) to convince people that we just cannot 'switch horses mid-stream'. I hope he doesn't, and I have at least some optimism that people will see through it and react accordingly when that time comes. But I don't see him wasting this tactic on the mid-terms, so a lot can change before this becomes a serious concern.

There. I've said it. Now we'll see.